Geopolitical tensions fluctuate, and the US dollar index continues to rise.

**Tonghui Finance App News——**According to Tonghui Finance App reports, as investors’ concerns about the Iran war ending quickly continue to rise, market risk-avoidance sentiment has noticeably intensified and directly pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. dollar also strengthening in tandem. President Trump clearly stated in his nationwide televised address on Wednesday evening that the United States will “strike Iran extremely aggressively” within the next two to three weeks. This statement sharply contrasts with what he had claimed the day before—that U.S. troops would withdraw from Iran within the next two to three weeks—completely dashing market hopes that the conflict would soon come to an end.

Trump’s latest remarks on the Iran issue have further heightened uncertainty. In his speech, he emphasized that military action would be carried out with “extreme aggression,” and he explicitly indicated that if there is no agreement, the United States would deliver heavy blows to key targets in Iran such as power generation facilities—sharply contrasting with the relatively more moderate troop-withdrawal expectations from the previous day. The market quickly interpreted this as suggesting that the conflict’s duration may exceed earlier optimistic assessments, leading to faster inflows of risk-hedging funds into U.S. dollar assets, while oil futures were raised again due to renewed risks of a supply disruption in the Middle East.

From a structural perspective, the U.S. dollar has gained dual strong support: first, its traditional safe-haven role is being significantly amplified in a high geopolitical-risk environment; second, the United States’ advantage as a net oil exporter makes the dollar more resilient than other major currencies in a high-oil-price environment. The latest data show that Brent crude has surged to $107.76 per barrel, up about 6.5% from the previous day. WTI crude for the same period also broke through the $106 per barrel mark. This oil-price increase directly reflects investors’ growing concerns about the security of energy corridors, while further strengthening the dollar’s appeal.

In this context, the U.S. dollar remains strong. The latest U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises to around 100.05, up about 0.5% from the low point before the speech. Higher oil prices are pushing up global inflation expectations, further weakening market bets on the Federal Reserve’s rapid easing; the increase in real yields also indirectly benefits dollar pricing.

To clearly show changes in key market indicators before and after Trump’s speech, the following is a data comparison:

Overall, Trump’s shift in stance not only extends the timeline that the market is pricing for the conflict, but also, through a convergence between energy prices and safe-haven logic, provides the U.S. dollar with sustained strong support in the short term. Investors are closely watching subsequent military developments and the reaction in energy markets; if conflict signals continue to strengthen, the trend of a coupled rise in oil prices and the dollar is expected to become further entrenched.

Editor’s Summary

Trump’s hard-line shift toward military action against Iran is reshaping the current framework for risk pricing of exchange rates and commodities through a dual mechanism: risk-avoidance sentiment and the advantage of being a net oil exporter. The combined effect of oil prices holding at high levels and a strong dollar will continue to test global market stability until the conflict shows clear de-escalation signals or substantial progress is made in restoring energy supplies.

(责任编辑：Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

【Risk Warning】According to regulations related to foreign exchange administration, the buying and selling of foreign exchange should be conducted at transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Those who privately trade foreign exchange, engage in disguised foreign exchange trading, buy and resell foreign exchange, or unlawfully introduce large-amount foreign exchange trading, will be subject to administrative penalties by the foreign exchange administration in accordance with the law; if the conduct constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued in accordance with the law.

Report