Underwear exposure! 8.4 million $BTC are locked up, and long-term holders are surrendering at a rate of $200 million per day, yet the market is still shouting "bull comeback"?

Market watchers say the $BTC price is still locked in a broad trading range of $60,000 to $70,000. The spot market shows signs of some early buyers probing the waters, while the derivatives market has completed a leverage reset. Volatility is easing, and the positioning structure has become relatively balanced. However, with no clear catalyst, market confidence isn’t strong enough to sustain a decisive breakout.

A key resistance level hangs overhead. Data shows that in the $80,000 to $126,000 price range, there is a dense supply overhang. To digest this heavy burden, either the price needs to offer a sufficiently deep discount to attract new capital, or it must go through a long, painful process of reallocation of chips.

The total $BTC supply currently in loss is close to 8.4 million coins. This scale brings to mind the market structure of Q2 2022. Back then, the market needed about 3 million $BTC to move from loss-making holders to new buyers in order to get back above the cycle’s central axis.

Long-term holders’ capitulation behavior is continuing. A key measure of their loss-selling indicator—the 30-day moving average—has been steadily rising since last November, now reaching around $200 million per day. This confirms that active capitulation is occurring. Only if this metric can cool significantly to below $25 million per day could it become an important signal for the market to form a bottom.

In the spot market, Coinbase’s cumulative volume delta has flipped into a slightly positive value. This suggests that spot buyers are starting to try to absorb sell pressure, which is an initial sign of stabilization. However, current demand strength is far below the level typically seen when the market forms a durable bottom in history.

Cash flows into corporate treasuries have become complex and concentrated. The earlier widespread corporate coin-holding trend has faded. Marathon recently sold about 15,000 $BTC, while Strategy appears to be the only institution still continuing large-scale buying. The base of corporate demand is no longer broad, and its reliability as structural support is declining.

Directional premium in the perpetual futures market has been compressed to around a neutral level and is slightly below zero. This reflects the fading of bullish leverage and a cooling of speculative enthusiasm. Long exposure is being closed out, while open interest for shorts is re-emerging. Overall, the futures market is becoming more balanced, but also more cautious.

Options market volatility expectations are softening across the board. Implied volatility across all maturities is declining, especially short-term volatility, indicating the market is pricing in a calmer period and that demand for volatility exposure is decreasing.

The skew indicator has started to tilt back downward, showing a return of some defensive positioning. Still, the overall level is far from the high typically associated with strong hedging demand. Skew differs across tenors: downside protection bid flow for the intermediate-to-long maturities is more solid, hinting at a persistent defensive mindset.

The market makers’ gamma positions have shifted to a state that supports the market. This reduces the convexity effect when prices fall, suggesting that after the recent negative-gamma phase, their short-term positioning has stabilized. However, beneath the current price—spanning the range from $68,000 down to the mid-$50,000s—negative gamma is building up.

This means the market is buying a large amount of bearish options below, and it does not expect a near-term rebound to be sustained. Once price drops into this area, market makers will be forced to sell to hedge risk, amplifying downside volatility and potentially turning a gradual selloff into a sharp liquidation, re-testing the $60,000 level.

One destabilizing factor is that implied volatility remains persistently higher than realized volatility. For example, one-week implied volatility is 49%, while one-week realized volatility is only 38%, leaving an 11-percentage-point gap. This persistent premium indicates that even though price lacks a clear direction, participants are still pricing in risk—pointing to a low-confidence environment. In a structure where volatility is overestimated and gamma is negative, even relatively modest sell pressure can trigger amplified price moves.

Overall, $BTC is still in a wide-ranging consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000. The market shows signs of initial stabilization, but it lacks the momentum for a decisive breakout. On-chain data paints a picture of repair: the high-level loss-making supply has not fully cooled off, and long-term holders’ capitulation is still ongoing. Spot demand has improved, but it isn’t strong enough.

The off-chain market is also displaying a balanced profile: corporate demand is narrowing, perpetual leverage has reset, volatility expectations are softening, and market makers’ positions are stabilizing. Together, these signals point to a market environment where pressure is easing but confidence remains insufficient. At present, $BTC seems more likely to be in a phase of reallocation of chips rather than a clear trending phase. Until spot demand expands significantly and the supply overhead begins to clear, range-bound consolidation is expected to remain the main theme.

Follow me: Get more real-time analysis and insights from the crypto market! $BTC $ETH $SOL

#Gate Square April Posting Challenge #Crypto Market Price Action Choppy #International Oil Prices Rise