I recently came across a very interesting analysis regarding a former policy expert's interpretation of the Middle East situation. This guy has conducted multiple war game simulations, and he pointed out a very critical issue—the variables that are simply not considered in the war game models.

According to the expert's war game simulations, it would take 4 to 6 weeks to completely weaken the opponent's defense industry, missiles, drones, and other assets. The timeframe still seems relatively clear. But there is a huge variable here—the entire leadership was eliminated on the first day. This directly escalates the situation to a whole new level, meaning the fundamental assumptions of the war game have been completely changed.

In an interview with CNN, he mentioned that, according to the original plan, only about half of the objectives have been achieved so far. He also believes that this conflict is far from ending quickly as imagined, and military operations could continue for several more weeks.

What's even more interesting is that another official who has participated in similar decision-making added that the leaders actually gave themselves five days to see if there was any chance for negotiations. But so far, the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough seem slim.

Additionally, a Navy veteran who participated in the Iraq War commented on this war game-style decision-making, bluntly stating that the goals of this conflict are defined in a surprisingly vague manner. He even questioned whether the military personnel truly understand what their mission is in this operation. This kind of communication chaos is quite damaging to troop morale.

Former Lebanese ambassador and relevant Pentagon officials also expressed concerns, saying that the level of strategic recklessness is worrisome. They pointed out that decision-makers seem to have underestimated the scale of the opponent's response—resulting in travel bans across the region and a significant increase in terrorism retaliation risks. U.S. diplomats even had to evacuate the Middle East on their own.

Overall, this situation looks like a military operation launched hastily without sufficient war game simulations. According to this expert, this is not a conflict that can be resolved quickly.