Tensions in the Middle East escalate! Multiple oil and petrochemical stocks hit the daily limit; 8 stocks' 2026 earnings forecasts double.

The oil and petrochemical sector showed strong performance in the early trading on April 2. Huibo Shares, Heshun Petroleum, Compton, Blue Flame Holdings, and Beiken Energy all hit the daily limit up. Keli Shares, Tongyuan Petroleum, Zhongman Petroleum, InterOil & Gas, and Zhunyou Shares clearly followed with gains.

Stronger firepower to strike Iran

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said in a speech on April 1 that over the next two to three weeks, the United States will carry out stronger firepower strikes against Iran. He said that if an agreement cannot be reached, the United States will carry out fierce attacks on all of Iran’s power plants.

Trump also said the United States hardly needs to import oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that those countries that need to obtain oil via the Strait of Hormuz must “take responsibility for maintaining this corridor themselves.” Trump urged these countries to either “buy oil from the United States,” or muster courage and go directly to the Strait of Hormuz to “seize oil.”

About half an hour after Trump’s speech, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on April 2 saying it had detected Iran firing missiles toward Israel, and that air defense systems are currently conducting interceptions.

Brent and WTI surge on the spot

Fueled by Trump’s latest remarks, both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil saw a rapid upswing over a short period. Brent crude oil surged quickly from around $99 to above $105, while WTI crude oil rose quickly from around $97 to around $104. As of the press cutoff, Brent crude oil was up more than 4% on the day, and WTI crude oil was up more than 3%.

Shipping and ports sector also strengthens

Trump’s latest remarks also boosted the shipping and ports sector, especially shares related to crude oil transportation, which saw even larger gains. Among them, China Merchants Shipbuilding and China Merchants Southern Oil both jumped by more than 8%, while Cosco Shipping Energy rose by more than 3%.

Will the oil-price center of gravity move up significantly?

Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol stated that after the outbreak of the Iran war, tight oil supply has led to a significant increase in oil prices, and this situation will further intensify over the next month. Birol also mentioned that as the Middle East conflict persists, the IEA is considering releasing strategic oil reserves again.

Shipping-tracking data shows that, affected by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s average daily crude oil exports in March were only 3.33 million barrels, down 50% month-over-month. Meanwhile, about 55 million barrels of Saudi crude oil remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Everbright Securities pointed out that in the short term, the direct impact of the Iran situation will continue to dominate the market; energy price volatility, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation pressures are intertwined. Even if diplomatic breakthroughs occur, delayed infrastructure repairs will prolong the economic impact.

Overall, the volatility of oil prices in the second quarter is highly uncertain and strongly correlated with the duration of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Overall, the oil price center of gravity is expected to shift significantly upward compared to the first quarter and remain at a high level with oscillations.

For the U.S., as the Middle East conflict enters its second month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has already regarded oil prices above $100 as the “baseline scenario,” and does not rule out the possibility of prices rising to $200 per barrel.

24 companies’ institutional performance forecasts

Based on institutional forecasts of year-over-year earnings growth, Yuxin Shares ranks first, with an expected 1130.77% increase in 2026. Eastern Shenghong follows closely, with a forecasted 917.43% growth in 2026. Qixiang Tengda, Wanfangda, Donghua Energy, Bomaco, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical also have their earnings forecasts doubled. Overall, among the 24 stocks in the oil and petrochemical sector, institutions have forecast the 2026 earnings growth rates.

In terms of stock performance since March, these 24 stocks have generally performed poorly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical and Tongkun Group falling over 20%; Eastern Shenghong, Huajin Shares, and Hengli Petrochemical falling over 10%. Conversely, Wanfangda rose over 20%, while Bomaco, Guanghui Energy, and PetroChina rose over 10%.

Looking ahead, Galaxy Securities believes that the war risk has not yet eased, and the conflict trajectory remains highly uncertain. The core assumption is that if the U.S. resolves the Strait of Hormuz navigation issue through the TACO approach, it would amount to acknowledging the restructuring of the Middle East geopolitical order, which would significantly impact U.S. credibility and the oil-dollar system. The U.S. may continue to strengthen its deployment in the Middle East, using more forceful military measures to gain more negotiation leverage, and the possibility of ground combat cannot be ruled out.

CICC (Goldman?) Securities noted that the Middle East geopolitical conflict is pushing up international oil prices and could boost the global oilfield services industry. Since late February, the conflict has intensified, with disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz causing substantial supply interruptions, affecting about 20% of global crude oil supply, and driving oil and gas prices higher and maintaining at elevated levels. Many energy facilities in the Middle East have been damaged, and the costs of long-term shutdown and restart of oil wells are high, with some capacity potentially lost permanently. Repairing damage is difficult, typically taking at least six months for supply chain recovery and repairs. This energy crisis is also prompting countries to reassess energy security strategies and increase domestic energy extraction, which will further boost the outlook for the global oilfield services industry.

(Source: Eastmoney Research Center)