Wen Chengkai: April 1st, gold is trapped in a triple tug-of-war. Can the non-farm payrolls data turn this into an upward trend?

After the gold forms three consecutive bullish days, is the upward momentum continuing to be released? Under the strong pressure of $4,740, if a pullback occurs, how much room is there for a retracement? If the uptrend continues, where will the rebound targets above point next? Impact of ADP data: As a forward-looking indicator for nonfarm payrolls, how will the ADP data released today transmit its bullish/bearish effect? How strong will its ongoing impact on gold prices be? The current gold market is caught in a three-way tug-of-war: short-term sentiment-driven rebounds, mid-term inflation pressures weighing down, and a long-term bullish outlook based on fundamentals. The March gold decline, though the largest in the same period, has also fully released earlier valuation pressures. From the core logic, the market’s direction will become clearly differentiated:
　　Optimistic scenario: If the U.S.-Iran negotiations achieve substantive progress and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, falling oil prices will quickly ease inflation expectations. Rate-cut expectations will heat up, and gold could continue its strong rebound; Pessimistic scenario: If geopolitical conflicts escalate again, safe-haven buying will undoubtedly give gold a short-term boost, but the suppressing effect of the high-interest-rate environment will become increasingly evident, and the long/short game may intensify with greater volatility. No matter how the situation evolves, $4,100 has become a mid-term bottom widely recognized by institutions.

This Friday’s March nonfarm employment report will become the key variable that breaks the short-term balance and determines the direction of gold. At this stage, there’s no need to focus too much on a single day’s price increase; the key is to watch whether gold can truly undergo a qualitative shift from a “hedging instrument” to a “trend-driven long asset.”
　　1. Market Review and Today’s Core Focus
　　Looking back at the recent price action, the market’s pace has been far beyond what some investors expected. I previously stated clearly that gold would challenge 4,700–5,000. Currently, the price has already risen to around 4,720, only one step away from the 4,740 top. The strength of the long-side trend has exceeded the expectations of those who have been hesitant in the market. Based on current market performance, the upward momentum from the three consecutive bullish days on the daily chart has not been fully exhausted. From a long-term perspective, the bullish logic remains unchanged. However, it’s important to be alert to high-level risks: Until $4,740 is broken, do not chase the price excessively. A pullback could happen at any time, and the decline could potentially point toward $4,620. Therefore, in terms of strategy, you should adhere to the principle of long-term bullishness with short-term risk control: Do not blindly chase higher intraday; prioritize waiting for stabilization around $4,620 before positioning for the next leg up. At the same time, you should anticipate the ADP data in advance: if it’s bullish, gold will challenge the 4,820 high; if it’s bearish, you need to focus on whether the $4,620 support can hold.

2. In-Depth Technical Analysis: The Breakout That Determines the Direction
　　On the daily chart, gold is still maintaining a high-level consolidation structure. Around $4,800 it has been blocked multiple times, forming a clear sell-pressure zone, indicating that there is strong intent among funds to exit positions from above. On the downside, $4,500 is the key support range; after multiple pullbacks, the price has repeatedly stabilized there. The current price is still inside the consolidation range, and the trend direction has not been fully established. Momentum indicators show the rebound force is limited: although MACD has completed an initial repair, it lacks a sustained volume-expansion signal, meaning that bullish power is currently insufficient to push a trend reversal. RSI stays in a neutral range and has not entered extreme overbought or oversold conditions, confirming that the market is in a range-bound tug-of-war rather than a one-way trend.
　　On the 4-hour chart, it shows a standard rebound-repair structure: price gradually lifts along short-term moving averages, but it lacks strong breakout momentum, and the pace of the rise looks somewhat weak. MACD oscillates around the zero axis, with a significant divergence between longs and shorts. RSI is in the 50–60 slightly bullish zone, but it hasn’t broken through a strong threshold, suggesting that bullish sentiment has the upper hand, but there’s no absolute dominance. If it cannot break through the strong resistance at $4,800, gold may return to a consolidation-and-pullback mode and test the key support at $4,500 again. If it breaks $4,500, it will trigger a phase of correction. If, with fundamental support (geopolitics, nonfarm payrolls) cooperating, it successfully breaks above the $4,800 resistance, then the trend reversal can be confirmed and the subsequent upside room will be fully opened, pointing toward $5,000.

3. Overall Outlook
　　Gold is currently in a tug-of-war between the “three key logics”: with the $4,100 bottom firmly in place and the short-term rebound still intact, the long-term bullish tone remains. However, you must be wary of the adjustment risk brought by high-level consolidation. Wen Chengkai suggests that medium- to long-term holders of long positions initiated at the low 4,400 area can continue to look for the $4,800–$5,000 range, and should remain patient for the trend to be confirmed. For short-term trading: avoid chasing at high levels above $4,740 intraday; focus on signals that $4,620 support is stabilizing, and follow the trend to go long. If ADP data turns bearish and causes a break below $4,620, you should temporarily hold off on trading and wait for an opportunity near $4,500. If ADP data is bullish and breaks above $4,740, you can follow through and look for $4,820 or $4,950.