Policy support, immediate demand entering the market, increased transaction volume, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen's real estate market welcomes a "small spring"

Turnover rebounds; prices edge up; more than 60% of transactions are under 3 million

Securities Times reporter Zhang Da

In the past March, Beijing’s secondhand home transaction volume rose noticeably. Data from the China Index Academy shows that in March, Beijing’s secondhand residential online signing totaled 19,886 units, up 144.6% month over month and up 3.4% year over year—its highest level in the past 15 months.

Several real estate agency professionals interviewed by Securities Times reporter said that in recent times, Beijing’s secondhand home transaction volume has rebounded, the transaction cycle has clearly shortened, and prices have risen slightly.

“Recently, the whole of Beijing has rebounded, and transaction volume is much higher. Many communities are now in a state of shortage of listings.” A staff member from a Beijing Tongzhou branch of a large real estate agency told Securities Times reporter, “Those cheap, good units were sold out earlier. Now, when a newly listed home with a normal layout is registered, as long as it’s not on a particularly low floor or with a particularly bad layout, if the price is just 100,000 or 200,000 yuan higher than the previous transaction price, it can sell out quickly.”

A staff member from a branch in Beijing’s Dongcheng District of another large real estate agency said to Securities Times reporter that recently, transactions for school district homes have been relatively active.

“Our shop signed about 17 or 18 deals in March—double compared with before.” Another agency’s staff member at a Fengtai District branch told Securities Times reporter that recently there were more clients, transaction volume rebounded, and the total price for each home increased only slightly—roughly 100,000 to 180,000 yuan.

Regarding the performance of Beijing’s March secondhand home market, Leng Hui, an analyst at the Beike Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Times reporter that it was “very good.” Transaction volume reached the highest level in the past 15 months. As for prices, they were generally stable overall, with a slight increase compared with the earlier period of the year, and the downward-stabilizing, turnaround-and-recovery trend continued well.

My Home Research Institute pointed out that on March 31, Beijing’s single-day online signing for the property market reached 1,422 units, the highest single-day transaction volume in nearly three years since April 2023. This directly illustrates the recovery of Beijing’s secondhand home market. Even more importantly, this round of rebound not only achieved steady growth in volume, but prices also moved in a positive direction. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in February, Beijing’s secondhand residential price index rose 0.3% month over month, becoming the first to stop falling and stabilize. Based on transaction data from My Home, in March Beijing’s average transaction price for secondhand homes continued the stable trend seen in February, forming a favorable recovery pattern of “up in volume, steady in prices.”

As to the reasons for the rebound in Beijing’s property market in March, Leng Hui believed there were mainly two aspects: on one hand, seasonal factors—every year in the period after the Spring Festival is a golden time when the market rebounds quickly, also commonly called the “little spring”; on the other hand, policy support—various policy optimization measures introduced in late December last year (for example, easing purchase restrictions, optimizing conditions for second-home loans, lowering the VAT rate, etc.) effectively boosted market confidence and also unlocked some housing demand, which gradually converted into actual transactions in March.

The entry of first-demand households in a concentrated way became an important support for this “little spring” market. My Home data shows that in March, the share of secondhand home transactions under 3 million yuan in Beijing was 66.3% of total secondhand transactions in the same period, up 19.1% year over year, with low-total-price listings becoming the main force behind transactions.

Regarding whether Beijing’s “little spring” in the secondhand home market can be sustained, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at China Index, believes that looking at future trends, after the “little spring” of March, transactions will experience an inertial pullback in April and May. The subsequent market direction will still depend on policy trends.

Looking ahead, My Home Research Institute believes that the real estate market has undergone deep adjustments over the past few years. Under the Central Government’s deployment to “focus on stabilizing the real estate market,” it has already begun moving into a new stage. As a first-tier city, Beijing has solid fundamentals, and the “stop-falling and stabilize” trend is expected to continue, helping Beijing’s property market achieve stable and healthy development.

Multiple indicators are impressive; “Shanghai’s 7 rules” energize the property market

Securities Times reporter Chen Yukan

With the boost from the “Shanghai 7 rules” policy released on February 25 and the impact of the traditional peak-season effect, Shanghai’s property market has entered a stage of “bottoming out and stabilizing,” and it has also seen a “little spring” in March. In the just-finished March, Shanghai’s secondhand home listing prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the phased transaction volume for secondhand homes reached a new high in several years.

Data from CRIC shows that in March, Shanghai’s secondhand home transaction volume surpassed 30,000 units—truly a “golden March.” As of March 29, secondhand home transaction volume had broken records for three consecutive weeks. The signing volume that week reached 7,732 units, the highest weekly transaction volume in nearly five years. Among them, on March 28 (Saturday), online signing hit 1,585 units, setting new records for the highest Saturday and single-day signing volume in nearly five years; on March 29 (Sunday), online signing reached 1,442 units, setting a new record for the highest Sunday transaction volume in nearly five years.

Besides the sharp increase in transaction volume, Shanghai’s property market prices also stopped falling and rebounded, sending an important signal of rising volume and price together. Data provided by the China Index Research Institute shows that in March, Shanghai’s secondhand residential average listing price rose month over month, ending the previous 33-month consecutive decline.

On the afternoon of April 1, Securities Times reporter visited the Pudong New Area Real Estate Transaction Center in Shanghai. Although it was a working day, the real estate registration and transaction hall on the third floor was still bustling with people—buyers, real estate agents, landlords, and others moved back and forth constantly. Large screens showed that both the ticketing volume and business acceptance numbers for the day exceeded 900.

Liu, the real estate agent who was accompanying clients to handle paperwork, told Securities Times reporter: “Since mid-March, the transaction center has often been this busy and bustling. After the ‘Shanghai 7 rules’ new policy took effect, many clients who were previously stuck on eligibility or loan issues started moving.”

After that, Securities Times reporter went to Beicai Town. The town lies between Shanghai’s inner ring and middle ring in Pudong. Within the area there are all kinds of residential units, including first-demand homes, upgrade-oriented homes, and mid-to-high-end homes. It has long been one of the more popular submarkets in Pudong New Area. “Our customer flow here is fairly stable overall compared with some of the热门热门热门 [popular] areas in the inner ring. After I took a group of clients to view properties in the afternoon, they were looking to see a two-bedroom unit around 4 million yuan. The clients felt the price was still a bit too high and wanted to observe a little more.” A secondhand home sales manager who has been based in Beicai for eight years told Securities Times reporter that the client base in the Beicai area is mainly office workers nearby and upgrade-oriented buyers. After the new policy, inquiry volume increased, but the actual deal pace did not become significantly faster. “Landlords’ asking prices are firm, and there isn’t as much room for negotiation as there was before the Lunar New Year. But buyers also generally have an ongoing wait-and-see sentiment. From the data, transaction volume across the city has indeed gone up. But in our submarket, it feels like the heat is only slowly being transmitted; we might feel it more clearly by April.” he said.

In this round of Shanghai’s “little spring” market, first-demand households are the backbone of homebuying. Data from multiple third-party institutions shows that in March, the share of secondhand homes transacted in Shanghai with total prices below 3 million yuan exceeded 60%. In the first half of the month, that share exceeded 70%.

Zhang Xiang, an analyst in Shanghai at the China Index Research Institute, told Securities Times reporter that “the ‘Shanghai 7 rules’ accurately released homebuying demand, and combined with the secondhand home acquisition pilot in the Three Districts at the start of February, it provided a clear exit channel and a price anchor for ‘old and worn’ assets, effectively stabilizing market expectations.”

Looking ahead to the later stage of the market, Yan Yuejin, deputy director of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that the activity of first-demand households will create the prerequisite for upgrade-oriented demand to “sell the old and buy the new.” It is expected that over the coming months, market heat will broaden and transmit further, and transaction activity for mid-to-high-end upgrade-oriented demand and luxury home markets will receive a boost. Overall, the secondhand home market is likely to show a positive pattern of “transaction volume leading, prices following moderately, and later volume and price staying stable.”

First-demand buyers are entering actively; currently, the market is still “digesting inventory”

Securities Times reporter Li Yingquan

In the first quarter, Guangzhou’s secondhand home market saw a rebound.

On March 31, statistics released by the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association showed that in March 2025 (the statistical period was from February 26 to March 25), Guangzhou’s secondhand residential online signing totaled 10,866 units, covering 1.0867 million square meters, representing month-over-month increases of 73.08% and 74.34%, respectively. In the first quarter, Guangzhou’s secondhand residential online signing totaled 27,182 units, covering 2.7190 million square meters, up 19.80% and 19.57% year over year, respectively.

By sub-region, in March, all administrative districts in Guangzhou saw different degrees of growth in their online signing unit counts month over month. Among them, Baiyun District, Zengcheng District, and Conghua District recorded month-over-month increases of 93.82%, 86.59%, and 85.60%, respectively, ranking near the top. Even Nansha District, which had the smallest growth rate, still increased 41.24% month over month.

On April 1, Securities Times reporter conducted on-site visits to multiple real estate agency storefronts in Tianhe District, Guangzhou. Because it was a working day, there were not many clients looking for homes and making inquiries at the stores; most visitors were scattered sources of customers. Several agents told Securities Times reporter that over the weekend before last, the workload for home viewings had been relatively heavy, and the transaction volume also increased notably compared with the previous two months.

A senior intermediary at a Guangzhou intermediary platform, Yufeng Real Estate, provided Securities Times reporter with a set of figures. Taking Tianhe District’s Changxing Road area as an example, the secondhand home transaction volume in March was nearly equal to the total of January and February combined.

“March is the first month after the February Spring Festival holiday, so the ‘little spring’ effect is quite obvious, and first-demand buyers are more active in entering the market.” The above intermediary said that regarding prices, the overall transaction prices tended to stabilize, without any especially obvious increases or decreases. “In the past two years, Guangzhou home prices have fallen quite a bit, and the cumulative number of listings is still relatively high. Rashly raising prices could cause buyers to drop out; we are still in a phase of digesting (secondhand home) inventory.”

Securities Times reporter, on the Beike secondhand home platform, saw that as of now, the platform’s Guangzhou secondhand home listing inventory is still a little above 140,000 units. As for prices, according to data from the Fangtianxia Research Institute, in March, Guangzhou’s secondhand home average listing price was 30,162 yuan per square meter, down 0.60% month over month.

Ye Guiqiang, an agent at Hengjun Real Estate, said that currently, buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment in the market continues. Some clients have a “hunting bargains” mindset, which leads to a slower entry pace. As the policy direction becomes clearer and the market environment gradually improves, buyers’ confidence is expected to gradually recover.

Liu Teyi, an agent at Desheng Real Estate, said that in March, the pace of entry for customer groups with rigid homebuying needs—such as those preparing to get married or going to school—accelerated. At the same time, due to their prolonged listing periods, some landlords’ mindset has changed, and they are willing to offer some price concessions in order to get their homes sold as soon as possible.

On the Beike secondhand home listings for March sales in Guangzhou that were shown, data indicates that the transaction cycle for most listings was 200 to 300 days, or even longer.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told Securities Times reporter that after the market for secondhand homes experienced large-scale price cuts in the early stage, there is demand for stabilization and rebound. “Many listings’ prices reached levels around 2017, which are affordable for new residents and young people. That’s why it contributed to a high point in secondhand home transactions in March.”

Regarding the sustainability of this round of “little spring,” the market research of the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association believes that since the market is about to enter April’s traditional off-season, combined with the fact that the previously accumulated rigid and upgrade-oriented homebuying demand has already been partially released, prospective buyers generally think they have substantial room to compare when choosing listings. This lengthens the decision-making cycle and slows the pace of entry, making the momentum behind transaction growth somewhat insufficient. It is expected that in April, the secondhand residential market’s deal activity will cool down somewhat.

The busiest market in the last three years—can the heat last into April?

Securities Times reporter Wu Jiaming

“Today, I’m going to handle property transfer procedures for three pairs of clients. Last month, my team and I often worked overtime. In my view, this year’s ‘little spring’ in the property market is the busiest one in the past three years.” On April 1, right after the real estate registration center in Luohu District, Shenzhen opened for the day, Securities Times reporter met Xiao Li, who was filling out paperwork for clients. That was what she said. Xiao Li works for a large real estate agency in Shenzhen, specializing in handling related procedures such as property transfers.

The just-finished March “little spring” gave Shenzhen’s property market a solid performance. Data from the Le Youjia Research Center shows that in March, the total online signing volume of first- and secondhand residential homes in Shenzhen was 7,898 units, up 117% month over month, hitting the highest level in nearly 11 months. Among them, firsthand residential pre-sale and ready-for-sale combined online signing totaled 2,827 units, up 118% month over month; secondhand residential online signing totaled 5,071 units, up 117% month over month. From viewing and signing data that is closer to real-time market conditions, the secondhand home viewing volume at Le Youjia’s stores hit a new high in nearly five years, 17% higher than the peak in October 2024. The secondhand signing volume rose 244% month over month and was also at a historical high.

At a newly listed home project in Luohu District that was on sale, Securities Times reporter saw a buyer who had just signed a deal. After two intended secondhand homes that she had been considering were sold quickly one after another, she promptly took action and quickly decided on a newly built home. In her view, after deep price adjustments, combined with the continued low-interest-rate environment, the holding cost and long-term value of properties are being revalued.

When Securities Times reporter visited multiple areas in Shenzhen, it found that luxury homes and upgrade-oriented listings became hotspots in the new home market, while low-total-price listings became the main force in secondhand home transactions. Data from the Le Youjia Research Center shows that the share of secondhand home transactions with total prices below 3 million yuan increased from 21.8% in March last year to 31.5% in March this year. Xiao Xiaoping, head of the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, said that there are mainly two groups buying low-total-price homes: owner-occupier first-demand buyers and steady, small-scale investors.

“On secondhand residential homes, listings with total prices below 3 million yuan see the highest inquiry volume and transaction volume.” A senior real estate agency manager in the Meilin area of Futian District told Securities Times reporter. “The heat in Shenzhen’s secondhand market still relies on price pressure to drive demand; ‘buying with price to increase volume’ is still the prerequisite for the secondhand market to rebound. First-demand buyers still generally have low tolerance for price increases, so both owners’ and buyers’ expectations still need further boost.”

Many industry insiders believe that Shenzhen’s property market has already moved out of a period where the off-season was “not actually off” before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the continuity of market heat in April is especially critical. If Shenzhen—and other core cities—can keep the heat, it will help improve market expectations.

“Since the end of 2025, the strong sales of several luxury projects in Shenzhen Bay and the stabilization of secondhand prices in recent core areas have brought positive signals to the market. This shows that core areas have already completed bottoming out. If this state can be sustained, the whole Shenzhen market is expected to complete bottoming out in 2026.” Zou Shaowei, a senior research fellow at the Shenzhen China Index Research Center, said in an interview.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that whether the later home prices can maintain a stable trend depends on three things: first, whether the transaction volume of secondhand homes can be maintained—especially after low-priced listings have been consumed, whether homes at the mid-to-high price levels can be activated; second, whether transactions in low-priced secondhand homes can drive a “sell the old and buy the new” and “sell the small and buy the big” replacement demand, forming a virtuous cycle of consumption; third, whether new homes can achieve comprehensive high quality at the product level and thereby drive buyers’ demand based on consumption upgrades.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Property market