Market Perspective | Wall Street Writes a Good Script: Will NVIDIA Rise to Glory and Then Decline?

If you’re still wondering whether AI is just a bubble, take a look at a set of numbers first: OpenAI’s reasoning API token consumption has surged by 320x over the past year. Token usage on the China enterprise side grew by 263% within six months. OpenRouter’s weekly cross-model token consumption started accelerating again in January of this year, and recently it has been approaching 210 trillion per week. In this era, people who are still doubting AI demand are probably the same species as the Nokia executives who mocked the iPhone in 2007; in the end, their fate is to become a cautionary tale in business school textbooks.

However, the market’s strongest skill is to blur together the fact that “demand is exploding,” which is already as good as settled, and the unresolved gamble of “who will reap the harvest from this demand.” This is exactly the most fascinating—and most deadly—fault line across Nvidia (Nvidia), Broadcom (Broadcom), and the entire AI compute landscape.

Nvidia’s ahead is the stars and the sea, but its flanks are not without threat. What Broadcom is doing should not be underestimated by any serious investor. Nvidia’s situation right now is just like a marathon champion who has already pulled ahead of all rivals by half a lap, but is starting to catch clearer and clearer footsteps behind them in the wind.

(Excerpt)

Xu Liyan Cross-city game

For the original text, please refer to today’s China Times