Institutions collectively raise the probability of a U.S. recession

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-04-02T02:21:22+00:00

Due to the ongoing US-Israel conflict, international agencies have raised the probability of a US recession. Moody's Analytics predicts it at 48.6%, Goldman Sachs at 30%, and other firms estimate it between 40% and 45%, significantly higher than the normal 20%.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-04-02 02:21:22

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Because the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continues to add downside risks to the U.S. economy, several international institutions have recently raised the probability that the U.S. will fall into a recession. According to a March 25 report by Fox News Business Channel (FNC), Moody’s Analytics’ model shows that the probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession within the next 12 months has already risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has raised this probability in its forecast to 30%; Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon expect the probability of a U.S. recession to be 45% and 40%, respectively. And under normal circumstances, this probability should be around 20%. (CCTV Finance)

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