Let’s take a macro look at $ETH today.

South Korea raised rates by 25bp in July to 2.75%, the ECB kept its 2.4% rate but was hawkish, and Korea, Japan, and Europe all tightened liquidity in sync; CME data shows the probability of a September Fed hike rose to 82%, strengthening the U.S. dollar’s appeal.
Ethereum is trading at $1,866; the 30-day gain is 20%, but it is down more than 37% year-to-date. The market panic index is at 29, staying in the panic range.

The global rate-hike cycle is weighing on risk assets, and institutional funds continue to rotate into U.S. Treasuries and gold. With heavy sell pressure above $1,900 for ETH, it will be hard to break out of a trend-following uptrend before any rate-cut expectations are realized.
$ETH ’s one-way rally has already ended, a downtrend has formed, and every rebound is an opportunity to go short.