July 26 — All macro news (labeling bearish/bullish directly, with ETH trading logic)

I. U.S. core (leading overall market direction)

1. U.S. Treasuries (strong bearish)
The 10-year yield holds above 4.68%, peaking at 4.71% (new intra-year high). Liquidity tightens as capital pulls in, the Nasdaq remains under pressure, and crypto market liquidity passively contracts, suppressing ETH upside room.

2. Latest Fed expectations (bearish tilt)
At 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the decision confirms maintaining rates unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in September has already risen to 82%. The chairman’s remarks are likely to be hawkish; the timing of any rate cut is pushed back to 2027. The weekend market is choppy and weak, and any real one-way move waits for the Fed meeting to land.

3. U.S.-Europe trade friction (bearish)
The U.S. launches a trade investigation into the EU and plans to impose additional tariffs. Global trade risks rise, and risk assets face overall pressure.

4. Economic structure
The AI industry is surging, but ordinary residents’ consumption is weakening. The economy is diverging, and upside momentum in tech stocks is slowing.

II. Commodities + geopolitics

1. Oil (neutral to bearish)
The U.S. and Iran temporarily halt negotiations on a ceasefire; oil drops 3.88% to 96.7 USD. Safe-haven funds pull out, which is the key reason today’s crypto prices are weak. As long as there’s no restart of airstrikes, oil will keep falling.

2. U.S.-Iran situation (latest)
The U.S. military pauses bombing, and an Oman delegation negotiates in Tehran. Iran continues attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East and refuses withdrawal conditions, making a deal difficult. At this stage: de-escalation = bearish; renewed war = bullish surge.

III. Industry news

1. Samsung + SK Hynix combined 950 billion USD AI chip long-term orders (bullish for the tech sector, mildly lifts ETH). The strength is weak and cannot reverse the broader trend.

2. Regulatory new rules for quantitative trading take effect on July 27; stock market capital controls tighten, indirectly affecting sentiment in the crypto market.

IV. This week’s timing layout (most important)

1. Sunday—Monday daytime: narrow-range consolidation; mainly short on rebounds

2. Wednesday (7/29) at 2:00 a.m.: Fed rate decision (the biggest turning point of the month)

3. Thursday: U.S. GDP + core PCE inflation data

4. Next Wednesday: ADP small nonfarm; Friday: nonfarm payrolls

V. ETH execution strategy

1. Weekend rule: as long as geopolitics doesn’t escalate into conflict, short at highs only. Only if a new round of attacks breaks out, immediately flip and go long.

2. Key levels: 1820 (break below = bearish for the whole time), 1914 (holds and turns bullish)

3. Fed meeting plan: if the speech is hawkish, follow-through downside target 1750. If it releases easing signals, pull back and then go long, looking up to 1960.

OP disclaimer: Market analysis is for reference only—please verify carefully and it does not constitute investment advice!