July 23 ETH:

Yesterday, ETH continued to trade in high-level consolidation, with no directional breakout.

On the fundamentals, the conflict between the US and Iran is still ongoing. The market has not been swayed; it remains unclear whether negotiations will continue or whether the war will be expanded further. Investors are only focused on the final outcome. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on July 28–29 local time. As the meeting approaches, the swap market shows traders estimate the probability that this central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in July at about 30%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 70%. Ahead of the rate decision, the market is also in continued watch-and-wait mode.

On the technicals, the 4-hour consolidation-to-uptrend remains unchanged. The hourly chart is stuck in high-level sideways consolidation and adjustment, with the main trading range at 1954-1910.

In terms of trading, swing and trend traders are waiting for a breakout of the range: go long if it breaks above 1954, stop loss at 1925, and targets at 1985, 2020, and 2150; short if it breaks below 1910, stop loss at 1928, and targets at 1880, 1849, and 1814. For short-term traders, within the range you can lightly sell at highs and buy at lows; once it breaks out of the range, follow the trend accordingly.