A research report from Morgan Stanley suggests that DRAM prices are likely to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), followed by a potentially sharp cyclical decline.

The chart shows several historical cycles over the past 15 years (2010-2026). Each time the blue line (price) and the yellow line (valuation) hit extreme highs, a rapid mean reversion typically follows.
Morgan Stanley believes this current super memory bull market—driven by the AI wave (such as HBM high-bandwidth memory and AI server demand) and constrained capacity—has already passed the most intense phase of price acceleration, and the year-over-year (YoY) growth rate of contract prices is falling from cyclical peaks.
The caption in the chart says: “while valuation (NTM P/B) has yet to re-rate.” In chip cycles, stock prices and valuations (yellow line) often peak a few months earlier than actual chip prices (blue line).
Although valuation has started to decline, Morgan Stanley believes that the market’s overall valuation re-pricing (squeezing out excess) for the storage-chip sector has not been fully completed. As prices peak in Q4, chip-stock valuations may still face additional downward pressure.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that after entering 2027, the DRAM price YoY growth rate will directly “fall through” back into the 100%~200% range. This means that even if memory prices do not necessarily experience an absolute crash during 2027, the explosive strength (momentum) of growth will significantly slow down, and the golden period for the semiconductor memory segment will come to a temporary end.