Key focus: Fed rate-cut timing, U.S. Treasury yields, volatility in U.S. stocks, ETF fund flows, regulatory updates, and high-leverage liquidations

• Status: Large-range consolidation at high levels, repeated pullbacks grinding out a bottom, extremely high volatility

◦ Bull case: The Fed cuts rates as scheduled, liquidity turns loose, ETFs keep seeing continuous net inflows, and institutions add on dips → repeated rebounds that test prior highs

◦ Bear case: Rate cuts delayed/renewed rate-hike expectations, U.S. stock pullback, tighter regulation, ETFs continue to see redemptions, cascading liquidations → further deep pullbacks that test key support levels

◦ Features: Plenty of leverage, message-driven moves, massive intraday swings, no stable one-way trend

II. Medium-term outlook (1–2 years, this halving cycle)

Key focus: The four-year halving cycle (the 4th halving in April 2024, with supply continuing to contract), institutional allocation, progress in compliance, and the macro long-term cycle

• Positive factors: Fixed total supply of 21 million BTC, long-term deflationary characteristics; demand for spot ETFs in the U.S. market, institutional/public listed company/part of sovereign-asset allocation; geopolitical instability boosts safe-haven demand, strengthening the “digital gold” narrative

• Negative factors: Uncertainty in U.S. and global crypto regulatory policies; potential changes to compliance taxes/custody rules; inflation reversals leading to tighter monetary policy; pressure from high valuation pullbacks, and sell pressure from “giant whales”/miners; industry black swans and compliance-related lawsuits

• Base case: Structural uptrend over the long cycle, but not a straight-line mania bull run—it will come with multiple rounds of deep intermediate pullbacks, i.e., an institution-led slow bull market with volatility still extremely high