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$BTC
Bitcoin is looking pretty good in the very short term.
The rising channel structure is being maintained and the RSI has started to recover again.
🎯 My first tracking level: $64,680
If it remains above this level, $65,630 could become the target again. Channel: The 60K - 65K main support / 72K - 75K resistance box that we have been discussing since the end of March is still valid, but in the very short term, the price is in a narrower rising channel. The lower band of the channel currently corresponds to the $63,200 - $63,600 range; as long as that is not broken, the structure is maintained.
• RSI recovery: The reversal in the RSI, especially its jump from the 45-50 band back above 55 on the 4-hour and daily charts, shows that the momentum has shifted from sellers to buyers. This alone is not a buy signal, but it confirms that the negative divergence formed during the decline has been broken.
• $64,680 and $65,630: $64,680 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last decline and also today's high. If we see a 4-hour close above this level plus increased volume, the next liquidity pool, as you said, will be around $65,630. That's also the last lower high before the June breakout.
Things to watch out for at resistance:
1. Sustainability vs. wick: If it only leaves a wick above $64,680 and then reverses, this would be a fake breakout. The best way to track is to watch the 4-hour candle closes.
2. Volume: It's normal for volume to decrease when approaching resistance in rising channels, but volume needs to rise above average at the breakout. Otherwise, the $65,630 attempt could turn into a selling opportunity.
3. Lower Support: If we say the channel is being held, a close below $63,650 in a potential pullback would disrupt the short-term structure and bring back the search for liquidity around $62,000.
The overall picture is still horizontal – a 63K-76K consolidation in the big picture, and an upward sloping channel as you drew in the small picture. On the macro side, eyes are still on US inflation data and Fed expectations, so risk appetite can suddenly reverse.
⚠️ For now, the technical outlook is not bad, but pay attention to price movement in the resistance zone.
This is not investment advice.