Gold has recovered sharply after finding strong demand around 4025, reclaiming several key moving averages. The structure has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish, but the next few candles will determine whether this is a genuine breakout or just a relief rally.

🔹 1Hr Chart Analysis
•$XAU price has regained MA7, MA25, and MA99 levels and is currently facing resistance at MA200.
• MACD has printed a bullish crossover with expanding green histogram, indicating buyers are regaining control.
• RSI has recovered above 60, suggesting bullish momentum without being extremely overheated.
•As long as Gold holds above MA200 (~4130), bulls remain in control for intraday trades.
🔹 4Hr Chart Analysis
• 4Hr chart structure is becoming more interesting.
•Price has already reclaimed MA99.
•It is now attempting to break and hold above MA25, which is acting as immediate resistance.
•The biggest obstacle remains the 4H MA200 around 4165, which also aligns with a previous rejection zone.
A successful breakout above 4165 would confirm a higher-low formation and could trigger a strong continuation toward 4205–4240.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If buyers defend 4130–4110 and break 4165, momentum could accelerate quickly.
Expected targets: 4165 → 4205 → 4240 → 4280
A breakout above 4205 would likely invite fresh buying pressure and increase the probability of revisiting the previous swing highs.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If Gold fails to hold 4110 and loses 4075, the current recovery becomes vulnerable.
In that case, expect another correction toward 4050 → 4025 → 3980
A close below 4025 would invalidate the current bullish recovery and shift the trend back in favor of sellers.
⚡️ Scalping Plan
🟢 Long: 4135–4120 with confirmation candles.
➕ Add on dips near 4105 if support holds.
❌ Exit if price closes below 4075.
💡 Key trigger : Watch the 4165 resistance closely. A decisive breakout with strong volume could lead to a fast move toward 4205 and beyond. Until then, expect increased volatility around this resistance zone.