Post-mortem summary: Last night at the ETH 1550 level, we reduced our existing short positions. The remaining tail positions have already been set with a breakeven stop loss. Today at midday, the market rallied and pushed up to the 1600 area, nearly sweeping our breakeven stop loss—but fortunately it was not triggered.

The tail positions we currently still hold will continue to be kept unchanged. For the next phase of the market, we still expect downward movement; our first target is to see a break below 1500.

If the breakeven stop loss gets hit, the next round of short-selling setup will be set at the 1660–1675 area, continuing to short from higher levels in line with the larger trend.

As for long positions, I will wait until the market prints a new low before considering entry. If afterward there are opportunities to buy because the market is bottoming out or when a rebound opportunity appears, I will update the real-time strategy on the platform immediately in the public forum for everyone’s reference.

So the logic for shorting into strength is also very simple: In this bear market, the prior rebound high in this cycle was at 1850, and an earlier rebound high was above 2400. The batch of longs that chased in at 2400 have basically already been cleared out by the market. What is trapped right now is mostly retail traders who got lured into longs during the 1850 rebound phase. As things stand, the amount of downside washout is still not enough.

Also, when you combine the funding rate and the long/short ratio data, you can see that the number of trapped long positions piled up overhead is enormous. If the main players were to forcibly push the price up, the cost of absorbing the sell pressure would be too high. The market maker will not simply spend money to help the trapped longs get out, so the overall large-direction bearish trend remains unchanged.

Going forward, our trading principle is to follow the trend and short, but not to blindly chase shorts. Wait for a rebound rally to pull up the price—then we will short when the opportunity presents itself.

As long as the breakeven stop loss on the existing short positions is not swept, we will continue to hold them. Once the stop loss is triggered, we will wait for the 1660 level to short again $ETH

Market conditions can change at any time. If the subsequent price action shows any change, I will adjust the plan immediately and sync the update over.