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June 30 Crypto Review: BTC Consolidates at Low Levels Awaiting Breakout, Favor Longs on Dips with Capital Support
Fundamentals:
Since June, market focus remains on continued ETF outflows, cooling institutional sentiment, suppressed Strategy/MSTR narratives, and geopolitical and interest rate expectations weighing on risk assets.
Spot BTC ETFs saw only a small net inflow after 13 trading days and cumulative outflows of approximately $4.4B; spot ETH ETFs also ended a 17-day outflow streak, but the recovery momentum remains weak.
On the other hand, traditional finance continues to move toward stablecoin infrastructure. For example, BNY Mellon is preparing to support custody, transfers, minting, and burning of Circle's USDC, which is a positive for stablecoin institutionalization.
As long as Thursday's non-farm payroll data is not significantly stronger than expected, it will serve as an opportunity for a market rebound.
Medium to Long-Term Market View:
Since BTC dropped to 58K and recovered, the market has been consolidating at low levels around 59K-60K in recent days, without forming a sustained decline or decisively breaking through key resistance levels. This phase of low-level liquidation and betting is also a phase for positioning.
However, there is no extreme fear in the short term, and the impact of negative fundamentals has temporarily diminished. Thursday's July non-farm payroll day will continue to influence interest rate expectations, but at most, it will repeat the rate hike expectations the market has already adapted to. However, if non-farm data favors delaying rate hikes, the probability of a strong rebound increases.
Overall, going long on dips after minor downward sweeps offers better opportunities than "following the trend" shorting at low levels.
Today's Market Analysis:
Below, focus on two ranges for dip-buying long opportunities: 58800-59100 and 58k-58300, on dip wicks. A breakout and hold above 60.6K is needed for a sustained rebound, but the key reversal level is 62.5K.
Ethereum is slightly stronger than BTC and will rebound first. Focus on a rebound after sweeping lows at 1550-1560, and a breakout continuation once it holds above 1610.
$BTC
The above is solely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)