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Middle East Ceasefire Agreement: The Repeated "Cry Wolf" Scenario
The Middle East ceasefire agreement has long been a short-term placebo for the market, with hostilities resuming shortly after signing, and the situation reversing faster than A-share fluctuations. This week's talks in Qatar are unlikely to yield substantial breakthroughs, so there is no need for excessive expectations.
The market has not fully priced in geopolitical risks; it is merely numb. Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, shipping insurance premiums remain high, and geopolitical risks are like ticking time bombs.
If negotiations break down and conflict reignites, crude oil CL and gold XAU will experience significant volatility. Do not treat a ceasefire agreement as a safety guarantee—a piece of paper can become void at any time. #美国年度净资本流入创8840亿新高 #Solana生态ANSEM暴涨 #Saylor暗示增持BTC $BTC $ETH