June 29, 2026 ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract Technical Analysis

Current Price: 1564~1570 USDT, highly correlated with BTC's weak movement throughout the day. In the early session, it dipped to a low of 1546, stabilized, and entered low-range consolidation. Overall, the medium-term bearish structure remains intact; any rebound is merely oversold correction with higher elasticity than BTC. The trading strategy is primarily short on rallies, with only small-timeframe light positions for support-based long scalping.

I. Major Cycle: Daily + Weekly Trend Structure

1. Patterns and Moving Averages

Price has been declining step by step from the 1849 high, with continuously lower highs, maintaining a complete downward channel. Price remains suppressed below all medium-to-long-term moving averages (MA20, MA50, MA200), forming a clear bearish alignment. The 1650 and 1800 levels have shifted from support to strong overhead resistance with heavy trapped positions. The weekly line is retesting the lower Bollinger Band, in a weak bottoming phase, with no bullish reversal candlestick pattern.

2. Indicator Status

The daily MACD remains in the bearish zone below the zero line. The slight narrowing of the green bars only indicates a temporary exhaustion of downside momentum, but there is no effective golden cross or crossing above the zero line, so there is no condition for a trend reversal. The daily RSI is around 33, near the oversold area, offering only limited room for a technical rebound, with no fundamental capital-driven reversal.

3. Capital Flow and Correlation Logic

The ETH/BTC ratio continues to stay at its lowest in nearly two years, with capital crowding into BTC as a safe haven, making ETH highly susceptible to passive downside. Spot ETFs have seen net capital outflows for several consecutive days. On-chain whale positions are deeply trapped, posing potential liquidation selling pressure. The market shows shrinking volume on rebounds and increasing volume on declines, with long-side buying power severely insufficient.

II. Intermediate Cycle: 4-Hour Level Structure

1. The 4-hour candlesticks are oscillating in a narrow range, with multiple tests of the 1585 resistance level before pulling back. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, compressing the oscillation box between 1546 and 1585. It is at a critical inflection point, with a higher probability of a downside breakout.

2. The 4-hour MACD has formed a weak bullish divergence golden cross at low levels, with extremely diminished histogram energy, indicating a weak repair with poor sustainability. Fibonacci retracement resistance levels are 1585 and 1620; medium-term strong supports are 1520 and 1505, serving as key dividing lines for bulls and bears.

3. Position Distribution: A large volume of trapped buy-the-dip positions accumulates in the 1620~1680 range. When price rebounds to this zone, selling pressure concentrates, with layered resistance above.

III. Short-Term Cycle: 1-Hour / 15-Minute High-Frequency Contract Structure

1. Intraday Short-Term Box: Upper edge 1578~1585, lower edge 1546~1550. Small-period moving averages continue to press downward. Every rebound that touches above 1578 encounters selling pressure, making it difficult for longs to hold above short-term moving averages.

2. The hourly RSI is running weakly around 35, lacking momentum for an upward breakout. A downward breakout would find almost no effective buying support.

3. Liquidation Structure: Recently, the scale of ETH long liquidations has been far higher than short liquidations, with stop-loss orders continuously cleared out. Shorts have ample momentum to continue the downtrend by leveraging the selling pressure.

IV. Key Support and Resistance Levels (Near to Far)

Resistance Above

1. First Intraday Short-Term Resistance: 1578~1585 (intraday selling pressure zone, 4-hour Bollinger middle band)

2. Short-Term Core Resistance: 1620 (previous consolidation platform, concentrated trapped positions)

3. Medium-Term Strong Resistance: 1650~1680 (confluence with daily MA20 resistance; only a firm hold above can reverse short-term bearishness)

4. Trend Reversal Resistance: A decisive breakout with volume above 1700 is required to declare the end of the phased bearish trend.

Support Below

1. Intraday Lifeline Support: 1546~1550 (early session low, short-term double bottom defense level)

2. Strong Support: 1520 (previous oscillation bottom, key long-side absorption level)

3. Medium-Term Ultimate Support: 1505 (phase low, weekly defense lifeline; a break below opens deep downside space)

V. Graded Contract Trading Strategy (with Stop Loss and Take Profit)

Main Strategy: Short on Rallies (Preferred as Trend-Following)

1. Conservative Short

Entry: 1578~1585

Stop Loss: 1592 (break above intraday strong resistance, exit immediately)

Take Profit: First target 1550, second target 1520; if below 1546, extend to 1505

2. Aggressive Short-Term Short

Entry: 1570~1575, light position test short

Stop Loss: 1586

Take Profit: Reduce/exit near 1550

Secondary Strategy: Light Position Long on Support (Only execute if price stabilizes without breaking the low; no heavy positions)

Entry: Pullback to 1546~1550, candle closes stabilizing without making a new low

Stop Loss: 1542 (if breaks the previous low, abandon long idea immediately)

Take Profit: 1575~1578, take profit on resistance; do not hold for long-term

Breakout Risk Control Response

1. If price firmly breaks above 1590 with volume, cancel all short bias, and go long on pullbacks, targeting 1620 and 1650.

2. If price effectively breaks below 1546 on the 4-hour chart, follow the break to short, targeting 1520 and 1505.

VI. Subsequent Trend Prediction

1. High Probability for the Day: Narrow range oscillation between 1546 and 1585, with the late session leaning towards a second test of the 1546 support to verify its validity.

2. Medium-Term Direction: If the key support at 1505 holds, price will continue low-range bottoming consolidation. Once it breaks below 1505 with volume, downside space fully opens, targeting 1450 and even the 1400 area.

3. Trend Reversal Condition: Only when the daily closing price firmly holds above 1700, accompanied by significantly increased volume and a simultaneous recovery in the ETH/BTC ratio, can it be judged that the medium-term bearish trend has temporarily ended.

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