Keep an eye on a few key numbers over the weekend:

S&P closed at 7354, right on the 50-day moving average of 7356. It has been testing this line for three consecutive days—not yet broken, but not bouncing back either.

If the NFP data next week is weak (expected to fall significantly from May's 172K), it could actually break lower.

VIX at 20.12, up 6.5%—not panic levels, but clearly no longer comfortable. Consumer confidence at 48.9, near historical lows—this somewhat contradicts the market picture where 62% of individual stocks are above their 50-day moving averages. Ultimately, macro is pessimistic but micro is still okay; this temperature difference is either an opportunity or a trap.

Key points next week: Thursday's nonfarm payrolls, and on July 14, JPM kicks off Q2 earnings season. Crude oil fell to 69.55, Iran just attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and the 60-day ceasefire agreement looks very fragile—yet oil prices are moving lower, suggesting the market does not believe geopolitical risks will continue to escalate. Gold remains high at 4092, BTC is sitting still at 59470.

#SP500 #⾮农数据 #美联储