Rotation Speculation — Will France Make Major Rotations?

France has already secured a spot in the knockout stage. A draw in this match will guarantee top spot in the group. Under these circumstances, whether France will rotate the squad has become the focus of outside attention.

Multiple sources indicate that France is highly likely to make a relatively large rotation. L'Équipe predicts France will rotate 6 starters: Koundé, Upamecano, Theo Hernández, Rabiot, Mbappé, and Dembélé may be rested. Replacements include Konaté (Liverpool), Saliba (Arsenal), Kanté (Chelsea), Thuram (Inter Milan), Barcola (Lyon), etc.

These substitute players are equally strong. Take Saliba as an example — worth €100 million, Arsenal's absolute starting center-back, member of the 2025 Premier League Team of the Season. Take Kanté as an example — 2025-26 Premier League tackles leader, core midfielder of Champions League winner Chelsea. Take Thuram as an example — Inter Milan's forward pillar, with 18 goals and 10 assists in a single Serie A season. Among France's 26-man squad, at least 15 players could be absolute starters on other World Cup teams.

The motivations for France's rotation are as follows:

Injury risk management: Saliba previously admitted to playing with minor injuries, and protective rotation cannot be ruled out. Mbappé and Dembélé, as the core forwards, also need to avoid unnecessary physical exertion.

Yellow card avoidance: Some players are carrying yellow cards, and receiving another yellow in this match would result in suspension for the knockout stage. Rotation can effectively avoid this risk.

Energy distribution: France's goal is directly aimed at the championship, and they need to reasonably distribute energy over the month-long schedule. The third round of the group stage is the best time for rotation.

Tactical testing: The French coaching staff may use this match to test alternative tactics and substitute combinations for the knockout stage.

But there are also reasons against France making major rotations:

Top spot battle: The knockout stage path for group winners is clearly better than for group runners-up. Although a draw is enough for France to finish first, if rotation leads to a loss, they could lose the top spot, which is an unacceptable cost.

Team rhythm: France is currently in excellent form, and major rotation could disrupt the team's match rhythm and chemistry.

Deschamps context: Head coach Deschamps is absent, and assistant coach Stéphane needs to prove he can handle this team. If rotation leads to a loss, it would be a major setback in his coaching career.

Overall, France is most likely to adopt a "semi-rotation" strategy: keep core players like Mbappé on the bench and decide whether to play them based on the match progress. If they lead in the first half, the core players can rest comfortably; if the match is deadlocked or they are losing, then send in the starters to solve the problem. This strategy both protects the core players and retains the possibility of winning. #挪威VS法国