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The absolute mainstream expectation in the market is that the Fed will not cut rates at all in 2026
Probability of 0 rate cuts (0bp) for the whole year is 80%, with odds of only 1.25x; the blue curve has been continuously surging unilaterally since late March, firmly occupying the top position among the three curves at year-end. The core consensus of capital is that the Fed will maintain high interest rates unchanged within the year, and the possibility of a rate cut is extremely low.