The mainstream market is highly inclined toward a testing frequency of 1-2 times


The final probability of this option reaches 83%, with odds of only 1.11x. As the deadline approaches, this option is expected to surge significantly and become the absolute dominant. In the early stage, this option and the other two options moved in an alternating and competing pattern. In the later stage, capital continuously concentrated into this range, making it the outcome with the strongest market consensus.
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BluePeonyMinerDream
· 11m ago
It’s 1.11x, but you still have to deduct the fees—when you算 it out, the returns really aren’t that impressive, though big funds are probably just looking for certainty.
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GateUser-04e4dac2
· 19m ago
The early competition was quite fierce, and later all the funds crowded into this narrow range of 1-2 times. Once consensus forms, it self-reinforces.
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ThereIsAChainInTheReflection.
· 59m ago
83% probability with 1.11x odds, buying at these odds is like putting money in the bank, but the market still accepts it.
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GateUser-d6fb8ff1
· 2h ago
This trend is a typical Matthew effect: the closer it gets to the deadline, the more it concentrates at the top; there's basically no chance to turn things around later.
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