Recently, the global market has been undergoing a profound macro narrative reversal and asset pricing reset. The core driver comes from the 180-degree shift in the Federal Reserve's policy expectations—from "rate cuts" to "rate hikes," combined with the rapid fading of geopolitical premiums, leading to a complete overturn of the operating logic of various asset classes.

Gold is the most typical casualty of this narrative reversal. The super bull market logic that previously relied on the "rate cuts + de-dollarization" narrative has collapsed, paired with the US Dollar Index hitting a 13-month high. Spot gold prices have fallen below $4,000, retreating about 30% from historical peaks. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have intensively lowered their target prices.

Bitcoin is also under pressure, falling below the key $60,000 mark, hitting a new low since October 2024. Rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite, coupled with record outflows from spot ETFs. The market is experiencing a dual dilemma of "lack of money and lack of narrative."

Crude oil, on the other hand, has followed an independent logic—geopolitical premiums are rapidly being priced out. As US-Iran relations ease and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, WTI crude has fallen to around $70, essentially giving back all gains since the start of the Iran conflict earlier this year.

Equity markets are highly polarized. A-shares' "ChiNext and STAR" indices hit record highs, but over 4,200 stocks fell, with capital extremely concentrated in tech leaders. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down nearly 9% year-to-date, while the tech index has fallen over 20%. US stocks also face short-term selling pressure from tech stock crowding approaching a five-year extreme and quarter-end pension rebalancing.

Looking ahead, the short-term focus is on the US May core PCE data to be released tonight (June 25)—better-than-expected data will reinforce the rate hike logic and may trigger a new round of risk asset sell-offs. In the medium term, the market's focus is on the "pricing adequacy" of the Fed's rate hike expectations: oil prices have already fallen significantly, and if inflation data cools subsequently, the market may correct the current overly hawkish expectations.

For A-shares, the July earnings season is a key test of "separating the wheat from the chaff" for tech stocks. For gold, long-term structural supports such as central bank gold purchases remain unchanged. On crude oil, geopolitical risk premiums have not completely disappeared. The current market is in a transition period where old logic is collapsing and a new equilibrium is yet to be established, with high volatility remaining the main theme. #现货黄金跌破4000美元