Vladimir Putin's staunch ally, Alexander Lukashenko, suddenly announces a long-term absence from the country, handing over power to the Prime Minister, raising the possibility of instability in Belarus.

Lukashenko, who has been in control of Belarus for over 30 years and is currently 70 years old.
On June 23, he officially announced a major decision to embark on an indefinite, purpose-free long-term overseas official trip, with domestic daily government affairs fully transferred to the newly appointed Prime Minister, Turchin.
The timing of this announcement is very delicate, just three days before Zelensky issued Belarus a final border ultimatum, giving only a week.
On one side, Ukraine has threatened to dismantle Russian military relay facilities at the border and cut off the Russian-Belarusian refined oil supply chain; on the other side, Russia has strongly stated that it will coordinate counterattacks against Ukrainian cross-border actions.
Caught between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus finds itself in a dilemma.
Lukashenko’s departure has instantly triggered global public opinion—whether it’s for risk avoidance, diplomatic mediation, or an early arrangement of the transfer of national power.
The trigger for this whole incident can be traced back to Zelensky’s deadline order issued on June 19, with Ukraine setting June 26 as the final deadline.
As early as June 15, Lukashenko was already in a difficult position, proactively apologizing to Zelensky for previously aggressive remarks.
He admitted that he had misjudged border information and that his earlier remarks attacking Zelensky were inappropriate, and openly acknowledged Belarus’s military weakness, stating it was incapable of handling the impact of the conflict.
The Belarus-Ukraine border stretches for 1,500 kilometers, and defending the entire line is extremely costly.
If Belarus joins the conflict, NATO is likely to deploy troops directly into Ukraine, and the local conflict between Russia and Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war involving Russia, Belarus, and NATO.
This is a red line Belarus cannot cross: dismantling facilities would offend Ukraine; dismantling the facilities would completely betray Russia.
There are no middle-ground options in this current situation.
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