June 24th BTC/ETH Mi Shen Strategy

The news has taken a major turn today, with Trump officially announcing that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, no longer implementing a maritime blockade, Iran agreeing to accept long-term unlimited top-level nuclear inspections, and Oman jointly reaffirming support for the Strait cooperation mechanism. The geopolitical situation is one step closer to realization. Congratulations to those who have laid out early. However, the market's reaction is that the good news has been fully priced in, and the market correction is moderate. This is directly related to the Fed's hawkish shift— the dot plot has shifted from hinting at rate cuts to hinting at rate hikes, with the December rate hike probability soaring from 24% to 77%. The reversal in liquidity expectations has suppressed the upward momentum of risk assets. BlackRock today deposited nearly $150 million worth of BTC and $63.38 million worth of ETH into Coinbase. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun is also continuously increasing positions. The actions of institutions have already indicated their stance, but overall buying interest has not yet significantly warmed up. The overall pattern is that geopolitical positives are being digested, with volatility dominated by Fed suppression. Proceed as planned, do less, and stay patient.

BTC: The technical picture encountered resistance above the W bottom early. The current issue is that it only stopped falling but has not recovered, still facing resistance in the range 1-2-3. For intraday short positions, it is recommended to use the upper boundary of the first range at 64,100 as a defense, and add to shorts below this level. The right side of the W double bottom at 60,800-61,800 will be a very cost-effective entry opportunity. Be patient and watch the performance around this area; if there is a spike and recovery, consider entering on the right side, with a stop at 59,500. The current technical pattern is very tidy; just do less and stay patient. (See chart for details)

ETH: Yesterday's strategy remains effective. During the night session, it touched the 1,607-1,669 range. Unfortunately, it did not reach a more cost-effective position at the lower boundary, so the stop was made early. The recovery effect is average, and there is not enough willingness to enter long positions. For shorts, use 1,730 as a defense, and look for opportunities to add around 1,695-1,715. Regarding the head position, Mi Shen subjectively hopes for a deeper dip, ideally to the 1,575-1,605 range. A larger double bottom structure would be more valid, and an entry in this area will be considered. Overall, keep this expectation in mind and watch the market patiently for signals; do not chase. (See chart for details)