Whenever $ETH is going up, there are always people regretting that they didn’t buy enough.

I know this script too well. Back when SpaceX first sent out the rating, the group chat was full of “go all in,” “to the moon,” “the next Tesla”—everyone shouting like it was all real.

Now that Moody’s and S&P have truly given it an investment-grade rating, the stock price is still grinding around under 182, with not even a decent breakout.

I almost chased it too. In those days, when I looked at on-chain data, SPCX’s open positions kept piling higher, and the funding rate was also biased to the positive. Retail longs were stacking up in a crowd.

The biggest fear for this kind of structure is “good news that’s already been fully priced in.” The morning the rating rolled out, I stared at the order book for thirty minutes—the trading volume shrank like nothing was happening. A classic “buy the expectation, sell the fact.”

I forced myself to hold back—pressed my hand down and didn’t act on it.

I didn’t chase, and I didn’t dare to short. In a market like this, shorting is easy to get eaten up by liquidity, while going long isn’t cost-effective.

A high funding rate means the longs are crowded, but after the institutional rating is in place, sell pressure is clearly gradually unloading. At the 182 level, if it breaks upward, that’s a real breakout; if it can’t, then it’s just consolidation digesting the situation.

Looking back now, not chasing was the right call. But in this kind of market, what’s most torturous isn’t losing money—it’s watching it sit there, and not knowing whether you should wait for it to break out before chasing, or lay in position ahead of time.

If your position is light, it’s not too bad. If you’re heavily loaded and forced to endure the range-bound chop, your mindset will eventually get worn down.

What do you think about SPCX at this spot? Are you waiting for it to break 182 before adding, or are you buying in batches now?

Chat about it in the comments. I’ll see if there are brothers like me who are also watching and waiting.

One more thing to add about SpaceX’s rating this round. An investment-grade rating plus a $20 billion bond issuance, in essence, replaces the IPO bridge loan with longer-term debt, making the company’s liability structure healthier—but in the short term, it also has a significant liquidity-siphoning effect on the secondary market.

With the bonds absorbing some liquidity, the funds in crypto and U.S. stocks that are waiting to trade/ride the SpaceX story may, in the short term, have part of their capital pulled away as well. For $ETH and altcoins, if liquidity stays tight, volatility in the second half of this week could be even bigger.
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