#美伊谈判推迟 Are US-Iran negotiations changing? Global high inflation and high energy prices may become the norm

According to reports from AFP, the Huffington Post French website, and others, after U.S. President Trump and Iranian President Raisi signed the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 local time, the U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 19 have been postponed.
Although both sides previously reached an agreement that injected optimism into the global financial markets, many economists and international organizations' analyses indicate that the global economy will still find it difficult to return to pre-U.S.-Iran conflict levels in the short term. Elevated fuel and natural gas prices are expected to persist for months, and global inflation pressures remain severe.

01 US-Iran Postpone Switzerland Negotiations
On June 18, U.S. media reported that the White House stated the trip of Vice President Pence to Switzerland for negotiations with Iran was postponed due to logistical issues.
A White House spokesperson said in a statement: “The technical negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are not yet finalized. The U.S. delegation is prepared and will depart at the earliest opportunity. But the logistical work for these negotiations has never been simple, and it’s hard to predict.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri confirmed on social media on June 19 that the Iran-U.S. negotiations scheduled in Switzerland have been postponed, “We are currently discussing plans to hold negotiations in the coming days.”
Lebanese “Square” TV cited sources as saying that due to ongoing Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon, the Iranian delegation has suspended its trip to Geneva, Switzerland, for negotiations with the U.S.

02 Movahed: Holding Different Opinions
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said in an open letter to the Iranian people on June 18 that he generally holds a different opinion on the Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding, but after obtaining commitments from the Iranian President and the Supreme National Security Council to safeguard Iran’s interests and the rights of the “Resistance Front,” he approved the relevant arrangements.
Khamenei confirmed that Iranian President Raisi and U.S. President Trump had signed the memorandum of understanding. He stated that Iranian officials had made great efforts to achieve the current results. He also said that the U.S. president was pushing for the agreement “under duress and helplessness” by “using all means.”
Khamenei pointed out that Raisi explicitly stated that Iran would not accept “excessive” demands from the U.S. side. Future face-to-face negotiations do not mean acceptance of the U.S. stance; Iran will continue to monitor the implementation of the agreement’s conditions and commitments.

03 Middle East Conflict Severely Impacts Global Economy
This round of U.S.-Iran conflict has had a profound impact on the global economy, not only affecting energy prices and inflation levels but also influencing global interest rates and economic growth.
It is estimated that this conflict has caused up to 2% loss in global gross domestic product (GDP). The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points compared to January this year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered it by 0.3 percentage points. The “Global Peace Index” (GPI), which reflects the economic impact of war, predicts that even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, global economic growth will still face a 0.6 percentage point decline. The French Central Bank forecasts that the Middle East conflict has severely impacted France, with economic growth projections lowered by 0.5 percentage points.

04 Limited Decline in Energy Prices
In the crude oil market, after the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transportation hub, eased, Brent crude futures prices in London have fallen below $80 per barrel. During the initial phase of the conflict, Brent crude prices surged from about $62 to over $100, and at the peak of the crisis, approached $120 to $125.
Although oil prices have now declined, they remain significantly above pre-conflict levels. Additionally, Europe’s dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased, and any market fluctuations can quickly push up European natural gas prices.
Economists point out that the decline in energy prices will not immediately or fully transmit to end consumers. From crude oil procurement, refining, distribution to taxes, this industry chain’s transmission usually takes weeks or even months.
This means it’s a prolonged battle, and oil prices may stay high through this summer and possibly longer.

05 Damage to Middle Eastern Oil Infrastructure
Some critical infrastructure in the Gulf region has been damaged during the conflict, continuing to trigger market anxiety. Experts note that due to technical and logistical constraints, the restart of damaged industrial facilities will take some time, meaning the energy shock’s negative impact on the real economy is still spreading.
Julien Marcilly, Chief Economist at the independent consulting firm Global Sovereign Advisory, said this conflict will prompt governments and companies worldwide to expand their strategic reserves of oil and natural gas to defend against future supply chain shocks. This replenishment demand will keep energy markets under pressure, and energy supplies are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the short term.
Furthermore, the market has already priced in long-term “geopolitical risk premiums” into current energy prices. Maurice Obstfeld, former Chief Economist of the IMF, told media: “I believe the Strait of Hormuz will find it difficult to return to the absolute safe navigation status of the past.”

06 Persistent Inflationary Pressures
Inflation driven by soaring energy costs has spread across the entire industry chain, including transportation, agriculture, logistics, manufacturing, and food sectors. France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) forecasts that by the end of this year, France’s inflation rate will reach 2.7%, compared to less than 1% before the Middle East conflict erupted.
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill pointed out that earlier this year, the global economy showed signs of easing inflation, accelerating growth, and stable trade, but the Middle East conflict changed all that, and the global economy will face greater instability in the future. Over the past two years, many central banks had expected to control inflation and planned to gradually cut interest rates, but persistent inflation now challenges this monetary policy outlook.