Half of Bitcoin’s supply sitting underwater is not just a fear statistic.

It changes how the market behaves.

When most holders are in profit, dips are easier to absorb because people still feel comfortable waiting.

But once the market crosses into loss-dominated supply, every bounce carries trapped sellers.

Some want to exit at breakeven.
Some stop adding.
Others hold until one more drop finally breaks them.

That creates a strange phase where Bitcoin can be historically cheap and still remain heavy.

The recent move pushed supply in loss above 10 million BTC, near the same broad stress zone seen around previous bear-market lows. But history also shows these conditions can persist, and Bitcoin has traded below realized price during major bear markets before.

So I would not read this as “the bottom is confirmed.”

I would read it as:

the market has entered the zone where a bottom can be built.

The next important signal is not another red candle.

It is whether forced selling increases while price stops making meaningful new lows.

That would mean weak holders are transferring coins to stronger buyers.

The real bottom rarely arrives when everyone feels hopeful.

It arrives when losses become widespread, selling becomes urgent, and price finally stops responding to the pain.

$BTC ‌
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