Core conclusions (updated version) Three key judgments: 1. The fundamentals haven't changed, but the price has. HDD supply and demand imbalance remains real, with capacity bookings until 2028. But the stock price has risen 24% in 3 days, surpassing Morgan Stanley's $650 target price. This means the odds of continuing to chase higher in the short term are already very poor. 2. Tonight's FOMC is a watershed moment. If Waller leans dovish, tech stocks will rebound, and WDC may continue to surge past $750. If Waller leans hawkish, tech stocks will pull back, and WDC may retest $630-660. Before the FOMC results are announced, doing nothing is the best strategy. 3. Waiting for a pullback to go long remains the core strategy. $630-660 is near Morgan Stanley's target price and also an area where technicals need to confirm a pullback. Stop loss at $580, target $800-1000. This risk-reward ratio is far better than chasing in at $699 now. One sentence: The fundamentals are solid gold, but don't chase after a 24% rise in 3 days. Wait for the FOMC to pull back to $630-660 and then strike. Watch Waller's tone tonight. $WDC