The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding—can the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision still push higher?

After an oversold correction, things will naturally recover, but the path of the rebound is both difficult and long. Based on the latest developments in the geopolitical situation, Chuanzi said that the US and Iran have already signed a memorandum of understanding. The purpose is to end the Iran-related conflict as soon as possible and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The next formal signing ceremony is set to be held within Friday in Geneva. After that, there may also be 60 days of technical negotiations, so in terms of the current situation, it can’t be considered a foregone conclusion!

Before this entire plan and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision are fully rolled out and take effect, crude oil also started to decline last night. In this round, the Federal Reserve will most likely not raise rates immediately. Waller’s speech will also not contain overly aggressive hawkish remarks. Once the actual outcome cools down the market’s previously priced-in rate-hike expectations and it is confirmed that rates will not be raised, the overall market sentiment is expected to flip immediately, further pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum to keep rising.

Looking at the structure, the biggest feature of this rally is that ETH is clearly stronger than BTC. Yesterday, Bitcoin’s rise was even less than half of Ethereum’s. Funds have started to tilt toward assets with higher elasticity. This kind of phenomenon often appears in the recovery stage after the market has been oversold, rather than at the start of a true bull market. Therefore, you can’t simply equate ETH’s strength with the whole market turning bullish. In the short term, watch whether the pullback can drop to test and see if it can fall through the key support inside the trading range.

Now looking at Bitcoin itself: on the four-hour timeframe, the MACD red histogram has already noticeably shortened, and signs show that bullish momentum is starting to weaken. This is also the signal for shorting last night’s rebound when it climbed back toward the 67000 area. The script calls for a short position around the 67500 region, and even a small pullback has already hit the target level at 66000. For the trend, since the rebound at the low point failed to get followed up, the sell-off pressure at the key resistance level is completely valid to short—don’t expect any imagined one-way move!

For today, go long around 65000-65300. For the upside, look for 66500-67300. If price breaks above the daily resistance level, you can consider taking profit and protecting positions, with focus on 67500-67800#Gate现货交易量逆势增长增幅全球第一 $BTC