I recently discovered something interesting: among the people around me who trade US stocks, over the past two years they have clearly split into two camps.

One camp is taking research to the extreme—reading earnings reports three times, building models all the way to DCF, and knowing the options Greeks letter by letter. The other camp almost never looks at fundamentals and instead follows the news to chase the latest hot topics. So what’s the outcome? The first group doesn’t necessarily make more money, and the second group doesn’t necessarily end up suffering terrible losses.

I’d say I’m in the middle—looking at fundamentals in broad strokes, estimating valuations in broad strokes, and most of the time relying on market feel. But when you boil it down, market feel is something you learn after being punished by the market. In the fourth quarter of 2018, in March 2020, and that round of rate hikes in 2022—every time, you had to genuinely hurt before certain things could stick as muscle memory.

So sometimes I feel that, "investment experience" isn’t about how long you’ve studied—it’s about how many different cycles you’ve lived through in the market.

#InvestingMindset #美股 #Markets