Actually, we should also think that fundamentally, there are basically major problems with the crypto market. It should have been like this a long time ago. Recently, risks have been “self-exposed” one after another from within the crypto world—nothing more than MicroStrategy selling the “big-bet” story, and the Ethereum project team running into issues; it was triggered by people resigning, and big KOLs turning bearish.

Plus the World Cup, IPOs, expectations of interest rate hikes in the second half of the year, global inflation, and geopolitical conflicts—etc. Multiple rounds of negative factors. And then it came down. Think long term.

In the previous wave, from 1400 to 4900, there were long-term tailwinds pushing it up. But when it was at 1400 last time, the whole world was shouting for 800. This time, it definitely hasn’t bottomed out yet. But you can start accumulating spot in batches at lower levels. Hold for three years.

Right now, it’s only that institutional players are re-pricing again. Looking at it from the short-term perspective, this trend suggests that the “big-bet” area—just over 60,000—will very likely go test that level. Around 1600 for Ethereum, it will also go there.

In the future, blockchain applications will be especially abundant, so after this drop, don’t easily buy shanzhai coins. The probability of ending at zero is high. Mainstream platform tokens generally don’t have much of a problem.

For contract trading, if you go long around the 1800 price level or below, and you control your position size well, there shouldn’t be much risk. Whether for the short term or the long term, you probably won’t get wiped out completely.

Although in the long run the negative factors haven’t fully played out yet, it just feels like the upside room is much bigger than the downside. I’ll open the livestream later and research it.

Recently, still control your position size. Don’t go all-in. Bottom-fishing is impossible—just wait patiently. Whether you go long or short, you need to control your position size. If the market is unstable, wait until it forms a consolidation—then we can go in with a heavier position and go at it hard!

Everyone, pay attention to this month’s 18th interest-rate decision meeting. There may be a bit of opportunity. And the signing of the clear answer in July will also give the market a boost.