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Many years ago, when I was doing semiconductor investment research, at that time, visiting wafer factories and requiring localization, wafer fabs would set up a production line with purely domestic equipment, but actual production still relied on overseas equipment.
As for EUV, as a product representing the industrial miracle and engineering limit on Earth today. China’s pursuit is optimistic to estimate 8-10 years, which is already very, very optimistic. Because China does not have Zeiss and Trumpf. These two German industrial giants are the backbone behind EUV, the unchallenged kings.
Even high-end mask templates are basically a blank in China. The reason why 8-10 years is considered optimistic is that if we follow ASML’s path, it’s almost impossible. So domestic companies, including Huawei as a representative, have been trying to overtake on curves, such as finding ways to improve light sources, or directly changing chip structures to reduce exposure requirements, or even the nanoimprint technology that was hotly discussed in the industry for a while.
Even if the overtaking on curves succeeds, it will take 8-10 years for these technologies to mature and be implemented.
Among so many semiconductor companies in China, the only successful case of overtaking in semiconductor technology is Yangtze Memory Technologies.