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#Polymarket每日热点
Bitcoin's recent volatility direction is unclear. Regarding whether Bitcoin will stay above a certain USD amount on May 7, I choose the middle position, $80,000, with the following reasoning:
1. Geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated
It seems the US and Iran are heading toward peace, which is also the reason for yesterday's market rally. However, the negotiations may not go smoothly, as today Iran's top military advisor stated, "Iran will not allow the US to escape the crisis without paying a price," and the "Sword of Damocles" is still hanging. The market correction will not end quickly.
2. Technical correction has not concluded
The 4-hour KDJ and RSI are both overbought, the 4-hour MACD green bars are expanding downward, and the daily chart shows long upper shadows. These signals indicate that the correction starting from 82,500 has not ended.
3. Market bulls and bears are in a stalemate
The market is currently in a range-bound, sideways "chop" phase. Although upward momentum is weak, the support below is strong. The panic and greed indices have returned to neutral, so a sharp crash in the short term is unlikely. Therefore, I choose a more conservative level of $8,000.
My betting strategy is to buy the dip when Bitcoin rebounds, especially when the probability of reaching $80,000 diminishes, aiming to maximize gains.
#Polymarket每日热点
Bitcoin’s recent price action is choppy and the direction is unclear. As for whether Bitcoin will be above how many U.S. dollars on May 7th, I’m choosing the center spot—$80,000. The judgment logic is as follows:
1. Geopolitical risk has not been completely eliminated
It seems the U.S. and Iran are about to make peace, and that’s also the reason the market rose yesterday. But perhaps the negotiations won’t go so smoothly. Today, Iran’s top military adviser said, “Iran will not allow the U.S. to get out of the crisis without paying a price.” The “sword of Damocles” is still hanging—so this market pullback won’t end quickly.
2. Technically, the pullback is not over
Both the 4-hour KDJ and RSI are overbought. The 4-hour MACD histogram is expanding downward with green bars. On the daily chart, there’s a long upper shadow. All these signals indicate that the pullback that started from 82,500 has not ended.
3. The market is deadlocked between bulls and bears
The market is currently in a “shock-and-stagnation” phase. The upside lacks strength, but the bids and support below are very solid. The Fear and Greed Index has returned to neutral, so a sharp crash is unlikely in the short term. That’s why I choose the comparatively steadier $8,000 level.
My betting strategy is: when Bitcoin rebounds, and when the probability of reaching $80,000 gets smaller, I’ll buy the dip to place the bet and capture the maximum gains.