Today (5.6) Market Analysis

Bitcoin stabilized above 80k today, reaching a high of 82,800 during the session, a three-month high. Market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to neutral for the first time since January, transitioning from "oversold correction" to "trend confirmation" stage.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, showing a bullish alignment. RSI is around 68-70 and not yet overheated. Resistance is at 82,000-85,500; a breakout targets 87,600 next. The first support is at 80,800-81,500; if broken, it may retest 79,000.

Capital flow is the core driving force: ETF net inflows have continued for five weeks, with a single-day inflow of 737 million last Friday and about 630 million yesterday. Exchange reserves are at a seven-year low, supporting prices due to tight supply. However, on-chain activity has hit a two-year low, with upward movement mainly driven by institutions and ETFs, while retail participation remains insufficient.

Risks: If non-farm payroll data this Friday is too hot, it could trigger concerns about interest rate hikes. The 82,000-83,000 range has dense options contracts, leading to fierce battles between bulls and bears. Strategy suggests being cautious about selling Bitcoin to avoid selling pressure.

Summary: Short-term bulls are dominant, but chasing highs is not advisable. A more prudent strategy is to wait for a retest of the 80,800-81,500 support zone before taking action.