Recently, I’ve been paying attention to something quite interesting. While the whole world is watching the confrontation between the United States and Iran, Turkish President Erdoğan suddenly stepped forward. Not only did he not support the United States—he publicly condemned the US for its attacks on Iran, saying this threatens peace in the Middle East. Many people found it surprising, but I think the logic behind it is actually very clear.

Turkey is a member of NATO, so in theory it should stand with the United States. But Erdoğan doesn’t see it that way—he has his own agenda. Put simply, Turkey borders Iran, with just more than 500 kilometers separating them at the border. When the Middle East gets thrown into chaos, the first to suffer is him. In the last round of the Syrian war, Turkey absorbed more than 3.5 million refugees, overwhelming domestic job markets, squeezing the government’s welfare spending so hard that it could hardly catch its breath. The economy was already not doing well—high inflation on top of that. Another wave of Iranian refugees? That would be the last straw.

Erdoğan is clear as day about what’s really going on. The United States talks about Turkey as a “core ally” on the surface, but behind the scenes it has only been doing things that harm Turkey’s interests. For example, the Kurdish armed forces—Turkey’s sworn enemies—yet the United States secretly provides them with weapons and support, plainly using Turkey’s security as a bargaining chip. And earlier, when Turkey wanted to buy Russia’s air defense systems, the US turned hostile overnight. It wasn’t just about imposing sanctions—Turkey was even kicked out of the F-35 program. Is this what “alliance” and “friendship” are supposed to mean?

To put it plainly, in the US’s eyes, Turkey is just a tool—pat it on the head when it’s useful, discard it when it isn’t. Erdoğan, of course, wouldn’t be foolish enough to keep getting played by the United States. Also, Turkey’s interests with Iran have long been tightly interwoven. Their annual bilateral trade amount can exceed $10 billion. Agricultural products, building materials, and electrical equipment are mutually indispensable. Turkey needs Iran’s energy and market, and Iran needs to use Turkey to open up overland routes to export while bypassing the US blockade. If Turkey follows US sanctions against Iran, Turkey’s own economy would also be dealt a serious blow.

More importantly, Turkey controls the Bosporus Strait, through which about 3% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass. If the US and Iran really end up going to war, Iran may very likely blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Then Turkey’s straits would become a crucial channel for global energy transportation. Erdoğan uses this leverage to keep pressure on both Europe and the US—far stronger than simply acting like a subordinate at the US’s beck and call.

This guy’s ambitions are actually even bigger. He doesn’t want to keep being a subordinate of the United States forever. He wants Turkey to become a strong power in the Middle East, with greater international say. Now that the US and Iran are at loggerheads, Qatar and Iraq are serving as mediators—so how could Erdoğan afford to fall behind? By stepping out to condemn the US and speak up for Iran, he’s essentially trying to proactively intervene in the US-Iran dispute and act as a mediator for both sides. As long as he can help facilitate negotiations between the US and Iran—or even just achieve a temporary ceasefire—Turkey’s position in the Middle East would rise significantly. At that point, the US and Europe would both have to look at Turkey’s face.

Of course, Erdoğan isn’t naive. He knows that if the US and Iran really fight, the fighting may very well burn right up to his doorstep. So on one hand, he calls for peace and rationality in a high-profile manner; on the other, he quietly prepares for the worst. Turkey has already been increasing deployments of air defense systems and special forces in provinces near the Iranian border, raising the level of monitoring for drones and rocket attacks, so as to guard against either side taking advantage of the chaos to cause trouble—especially fearing Kurdish armed groups might use the opportunity to stir things up. He has also secretly coordinated positions with Russia. Even though Turkey and Russia have conflicts in Syria, they share the same goal when it comes to preventing the US-Iran war from expanding further. With Russia as a backer, Turkey can stand firmer when facing the US.

Many people say Turkey has betrayed NATO and betrayed the United States, but I think this is just pragmatic—this is the smartest way for a small country to survive in a power struggle dominated by big nations. In international relations, there are no eternal allies—only eternal interests. As a regional power, Turkey’s first concern is its own national interests, not blindly following the US to the bitter end. The US causes trouble in the Middle East only ever looks at its own interests. It doesn’t care whether the region is in chaos, or whether its allies live or die. During the Gulf War, Turkey followed the US to impose sanctions on Iraq; the result was that its own economy collapsed, inflation surged, and mounting domestic discontent filled the streets. Erdoğan has taken that lesson to heart and has no intention of repeating it.

The US thinks it’s the global boss, and that all allies must listen to it. But it forgets one thing: allies also have their own interests and bottom lines. Turkey’s counter move is, in essence, a reminder to the US: stop acting recklessly under the banner of hegemony, and stop treating allies like mere tools. Behind Turkey’s strategic calculations is the effort of a regional power to seek an independent standing. Otherwise, all the allies around you will eventually leave you—and only then will the US truly regret it.