#OilPrice – Brent at $111, WTI near $100: Fear of the Strait of Hormuz reignites price surge

On the morning of May 1st, the oil market continued its April rollercoaster. US crude oil (WTI) futures rose 3.5% to $99.71, briefly surpassing $100 during the session. Brent, meanwhile, rose 2.7% to $111.19. A week ago, Brent tested a four-year high of $126.41 before retreating to $116.

The single word driving the price up is: Hormuz.

Why is it rising again?

The US-Iran impasse: The ceasefire has been extended indefinitely, but talks have stalled. The Trump administration maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran has seized two tankers in the strait. The market is pricing in a scenario where 10% of the daily 21 million barrels of oil flow is cut off. UAE's withdrawal from OPEC: The United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from OPEC as of May 1st. A structural shock for the 60-year-old cartel. The UAE's statement that it will not adhere to the production ceiling has called into question supply discipline.
Stock psychology: Goldman Sachs calculates that if there is a six-week closure in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent could average $110 and peak at $135. The bank also revised its 2026 average from $77 to $85. ANZ forecasts $88 for the end of the year.

These expectations were reflected even at the pump in the UAE. The country increased the prices of Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus 91 from May 1st. The reason: "global oil prices and distribution costs."

Why doesn't the volatility end?

April was a summary of this. On April 8th, with the news of a ceasefire, WTI fell to $80. Then negotiations stalled, and the price jumped 25% in three weeks. Traders are now betting on headline risk instead of fundamental supply and demand.

Reuters surveys are still predicting a "surplus supply" scenario of $61-62 for 2026. But this is only valid if the Strait of Hormuz remains open. If it remains closed, the market faces a daily deficit of 0.5 to 4.2 million barrels.

What to watch?

Hormuz traffic: Satellite data shows tanker transits have fallen to 90% of normal levels. A full closure would push the price above $120.
US strategic reserve: The White House is discussing "strategic" steps for oil, similar to the 200,000 BTC it has banned from sale. Sales from the reserve would create pressure.
UAE production: The possibility of the UAE, which is outside OPEC, increasing its daily production to 4 million barrels could stabilize the price in the short term.

The #OilPrice hashtag today is not just a number, but shows the geopolitical cost of energy. Brent is at $111, WTI is on the verge of $100. A tweet, a tanker, an OPEC decision can move the price by $10. May signals that the word "stability" will remain absent from the oil lexicon for some time to come.

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