$ETH Analysis on the morning of April 20

The news environment forms the core driving force, providing solid confidence for a bullish rebound. In recent times, geopolitical tensions have repeatedly disrupted the market, and the continued demand for safe-haven assets keeps supporting gold prices. At the same time, the global central banks’ gold-buying momentum has not faded, and the presence of long-term allocation positions locks in a valuation floor from below. Coupled with signals from the data, expectations are heating up that the pace of economic recovery will slow down, and the interest-rate-cut cycle is gradually approaching. As gold is a core asset for hedging against inflation and protecting against interest-rate risk, its valuation advantage becomes even more prominent. These fundamental logic together form the underlying support for the bulls’ counterattack, providing a firm policy and macro backdrop for the market’s rebound.

On the technical side, reversal signals are also released in sync, perfectly echoing the news-driven momentum. Previously, price had been moving downward along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with the low probing to 2250.91. After that, the lower band of the Bollinger Bands first flattened and then turned upward, indicating that bearish momentum has fully exhausted. Price then gained strong support at this level, stabilized, and rebounded. It is currently trading at the key level of 2278.16, breaking the one-way bearish structure of “price falling with the band,” and the Bollinger Bands’ opening has shifted from an expansion state to a contraction state; the early form of an upward oscillation trend is now clearly visible. In terms of candlestick rhythm, there have been consecutive bullish candles rebounding without pulling back to retest or break below the prior lows, and bullish strength is gradually taking the lead in the short-term trading action. The pace of the counterattack is steady and strong.

Judging from the order book structure, the 2278-2275 range is an important defensive line below the middle line of the current Bollinger Bands. As long as price does not effectively break down below this range, the rhythm of the bulls’ rebound will not be disrupted. The first resistance to watch above is at 2290-2295. If it can hold steady at this level, the outlook is for a further extension toward the 2310-2320 range, opening up more room for the bulls’ counterattack. A personal suggestion from Yifan is to go long near 2200-2250, with targets of 2300-2350.